Track record
Every pick, on the record.
Every pick is published with a timestamp before kickoff and graded at the line we posted. Nothing gets deleted. Live, test and backtest results are kept apart, because they're different kinds of evidence.
● Live since Sun, Oct 11
5-2
bets · 71.4% · +2.41u
- Watchlist + bets
- 5-5
- Every game's lean
- 13-17
Logged with a timestamp before kickoff; graded at the line and price logged. Too few bets to judge yet.
2025 test season
42-29-1
59.2% · +9.18u at -110 · ROI 12.8%
- Model's avg %
- 55.1%
- Worst drawdown
- 6.3u
Out-of-sample: the model was frozen on 2010-2024 data before 2025 was graded, once.
2015-2024 backtest
459-375-21
55.0% · +42.3u at -110 · ROI 4.9%
- Bets per season
- about 86
- Losing seasons
- 2 of 10
Walk-forward: each season predicted by a model fit only on earlier seasons. These seasons were used to choose the model, so treat them as optimistic.
Equity curve · 2025 test season
Equity curve · live bets
Hit rate by season
* test season
52.4% break-even
55.7
54.2
53.2
57.3
51.2
58.7
56.4
56.8
47.1
60.4
59.2
20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025*
Bigger edges hit more often
| Edge | 2015-24 | 2025 test |
|---|---|---|
| +1-2 pts | 164-156-9 · 51.2% | 13-11 · 54.2% |
| +2-3 pts | 128-99-4 · 56.4% | 10-12-1 · 45.5% |
| +3+ pts | 167-120-8 · 58.2% | 19-6 · 76.0% |
Over ten seasons the hit rate climbs with the edge. A single season is noisy.
When Artemis says 55%, is it 55%?
| Model says | Games | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-52% | 1365 | 50.9% | 51.0% |
| 52-53.4% | 692 | 52.6% | 52.5% |
| 53.4-55% | 514 | 54.1% | 52.9% |
| 55-57% | 299 | 55.8% | 60.2% |
| 57%+ | 83 | 58.2% | 55.4% |
Every game's lean, 2015-2025, pushes excluded. Close to the prediction means the sizes can be trusted.
Live ledger
Newest first. A pick appears here once its game has kicked off.
| Wk | Logged (ET) | Pick | Price | Model | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thu 6:52 PM | CAR +3.5 vs GB | −108 | 50.9% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Mon 7:08 PM | PHI +4.5 vs DAL | −114 | 51.7% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 6:56 PM | KC +3 vs SEA | −117 | 51.7% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 2:46 PM | LV +3 vs LA | +100 | 50.7% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 2:46 PM | DET −3.5 vs GB | −110 | 51.9% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 2:46 PM | DEN −4.5 vs ARI | −110 | 50.6% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 7 | Sun 11:36 AM | BAL +3 vs CIN | −115 | 50.4% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 11:36 AM | TEN +2 vs CLE | −110 | 50.3% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 11:36 AM | IND +7 vs MIN | −110 | 51.7% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 7 | Sun 11:36 AM | SF −2.5 vs ATL | −115 | 54.0% | ● Watchlist | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 11:36 AM | CAR −3 vs TB | −106 | 52.4% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 11:36 AM | NYJ −3.5 vs MIA | −112 | 50.1% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 7 | Sun 11:36 AM | HOU −10.5 vs NYG | −107 | 54.0% | ● Watchlist | ▼ L |
| 7 | Thu 10:59 PM | NO +3.5 vs PIT | −118 | 54.1% | ● Watchlist | ▼ L |
| 7 | Thu 7:18 PM | NE +3 vs CHI | −113 | 50.8% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 6 | Sun 6:58 PM | WAS +7.5 vs SF | −112 | 54.5% | ▲ Bet | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 6:58 PM | GB +0.5 vs DAL | −110 | 50.1% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 2:46 PM | BUF −5 vs LV | −105 | 50.0% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 6 | Sun 2:46 PM | KC −7.5 vs LAC | −105 | 52.9% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 2:46 PM | ARI +13 vs LA | −110 | 51.4% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 12:56 PM | PIT −2 vs TB | −110 | 53.5% | ▲ Bet | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 12:56 PM | TEN +6.5 vs IND | −115 | 50.8% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 12:56 PM | NO −1 vs NYG | −103 | 53.1% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 12:56 PM | CHI −1 vs ATL | −106 | 51.6% | Pass | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 12:56 PM | NYJ +7.5 vs NE | −110 | 54.1% | ▲ Bet | ▲ W |
| 6 | Sun 12:56 PM | PHI +3 vs CAR | −109 | 55.2% | ▲ Bet | ▼ L |
| 6 | Sun 12:56 PM | BAL −3 vs CLE | −115 | 55.2% | ▲ Bet | ▼ L |
| 6 | Fri 2:28 PM | JAX −2.5 vs HOU | −115 | 52.1% | Pass | ▼ L |
| 5 | Sun 6:46 PM | BUF +3.5 vs LA | −115 | 55.2% | ▲ Bet | ▲ W |
| 5 | Sun 6:46 PM | BAL +3.5 vs ATL | −120 | 57.8% | ▲ Bet | ▲ W |
2025 test season: every bet
72 bets, model probability and edge for each
Show all 72 bets▾
| Week | Pick | Opponent | Model | Edge | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN +8.5 | at DEN | 55.1% | +2.7 | ▲ W | 12-20 |
| 2 | WAS +3.5 | at GB | 54.9% | +2.5 | ▼ L | 18-27 |
| 2 | NYG +4.5 | at DAL | 56.6% | +4.2 | ▲ W | 37-40 |
| 2 | BAL −12.5 | vs CLE | 57.8% | +5.4 | ▲ W | 41-17 |
| 2 | DEN −2.5 | at IND | 54.7% | +2.3 | ▼ L | 28-29 |
| 2 | ATL +3.5 | at MIN | 55.6% | +3.2 | ▲ W | 22-6 |
| 2 | TB +2.5 | at HOU | 54.0% | +1.6 | ▲ W | 20-19 |
| 3 | CIN +3 | at MIN | 56.2% | +3.8 | ▼ L | 10-48 |
| 3 | WAS −2.5 | vs LV | 55.5% | +3.1 | ▲ W | 41-24 |
| 3 | DEN +2.5 | at LAC | 54.8% | +2.4 | ▼ L | 20-23 |
| 4 | SEA −1.5 | at ARI | 53.5% | +1.1 | ▲ W | 23-20 |
| 4 | NYG +6 | vs LAC | 53.5% | +1.1 | ▲ W | 21-18 |
| 4 | JAX +3.5 | at SF | 55.2% | +2.8 | ▲ W | 26-21 |
| 4 | DAL +7 | vs GB | 54.4% | +2.0 | ▲ W | 40-40 |
| 4 | MIA −2.5 | vs NYJ | 55.4% | +3.1 | ▲ W | 27-21 |
| 5 | MIN −3.5 | at CLE | 56.3% | +3.9 | ▲ W | 21-17 |
| 5 | MIA −1.5 | at CAR | 57.0% | +4.7 | ▼ L | 24-27 |
| 5 | LV +7 | at IND | 53.6% | +1.2 | ▼ L | 6-40 |
| 5 | CIN +10.5 | vs DET | 54.7% | +2.3 | ▼ L | 24-37 |
| 6 | PIT −5.5 | vs CLE | 54.0% | +1.6 | ▲ W | 23-9 |
| 6 | BAL +7 | vs LA | 54.4% | +2.0 | ▼ L | 3-17 |
| 6 | MIA +3.5 | vs LAC | 56.0% | +3.6 | ▲ W | 27-29 |
| 6 | ARI +8.5 | at IND | 55.6% | +3.2 | ▲ W | 27-31 |
| 6 | SEA −1.5 | at JAX | 53.8% | +1.5 | ▲ W | 20-12 |
| 6 | KC −2.5 | vs DET | 55.5% | +3.1 | ▲ W | 30-17 |
| 7 | MIA +2.5 | at CLE | 58.8% | +6.5 | ▼ L | 6-31 |
| 7 | PHI −2.5 | at MIN | 55.0% | +2.6 | ▲ W | 28-22 |
| 7 | KC −13.5 | vs LV | 54.6% | +2.2 | ▲ W | 31-0 |
| 8 | MIA +7 | at ATL | 60.3% | +7.9 | ▲ W | 34-10 |
| 8 | HOU −2.5 | vs SF | 55.6% | +3.2 | ▲ W | 26-15 |
| 8 | NO +4.5 | vs TB | 55.2% | +2.8 | ▼ L | 3-23 |
| 8 | PIT +3 | vs GB | 53.7% | +1.3 | ▼ L | 25-35 |
| 9 | GB −12.5 | vs CAR | 54.8% | +2.4 | ▼ L | 13-16 |
| 9 | CIN +3 | vs CHI | 54.4% | +2.0 | ▼ L | 42-47 |
| 10 | LV +9.5 | at DEN | 53.5% | +1.2 | ▲ W | 7-10 |
| 10 | NYG +4.5 | at CHI | 53.4% | +1.0 | ▲ W | 20-24 |
| 10 | MIA +8.5 | vs BUF | 57.2% | +4.8 | ▲ W | 30-13 |
| 10 | ARI +7 | at SEA | 53.6% | +1.2 | ▼ L | 22-44 |
| 10 | WAS +8.5 | vs DET | 55.0% | +2.6 | ▼ L | 22-44 |
| 11 | CIN +5.5 | at PIT | 53.5% | +1.2 | ▼ L | 12-34 |
| 11 | CAR +4.5 | at ATL | 57.6% | +5.3 | ▲ W | 30-27 |
| 11 | JAX +3 | vs LAC | 53.5% | +1.1 | ▲ W | 35-6 |
| 11 | CHI +3 | at MIN | 54.7% | +2.3 | ▲ W | 19-17 |
| 11 | PHI −2.5 | vs DET | 54.4% | +2.0 | ▲ W | 16-9 |
| 12 | CIN +7.5 | vs NE | 54.9% | +2.5 | ▲ W | 20-26 |
| 12 | BAL −14 | vs NYJ | 53.4% | +1.0 | ▼ L | 23-10 |
| 12 | PIT +3 | at CHI | 54.7% | +2.3 | Push | 28-31 |
| 12 | NYG +14 | at DET | 53.7% | +1.3 | ▲ W | 27-34 |
| 13 | WAS +6.5 | vs DEN | 56.9% | +4.5 | ▲ W | 26-27 |
| 14 | TEN +4.5 | at CLE | 55.8% | +3.4 | ▲ W | 31-29 |
| 14 | WAS −1.5 | at MIN | 55.9% | +3.5 | ▼ L | 0-31 |
| 14 | MIA −2.5 | at NYJ | 55.8% | +3.4 | ▲ W | 34-10 |
| 14 | IND −2.5 | at JAX | 54.0% | +1.6 | ▼ L | 19-36 |
| 15 | BAL −2.5 | at CIN | 55.7% | +3.3 | ▲ W | 24-0 |
| 15 | IND +13.5 | at SEA | 53.8% | +1.4 | ▲ W | 16-18 |
| 16 | WAS +7 | vs PHI | 53.4% | +1.0 | ▼ L | 18-29 |
| 16 | NYG +2.5 | vs MIN | 53.4% | +1.0 | ▼ L | 13-16 |
| 16 | NYJ +6.5 | at NO | 53.5% | +1.1 | ▼ L | 6-29 |
| 16 | BUF −10.5 | at CLE | 58.8% | +6.4 | ▼ L | 23-20 |
| 16 | PIT +7.5 | at DET | 54.8% | +2.4 | ▲ W | 29-24 |
| 16 | BAL −3.5 | vs NE | 54.1% | +1.7 | ▼ L | 24-28 |
| 17 | WAS +8.5 | vs DAL | 57.6% | +5.3 | ▲ W | 23-30 |
| 17 | BAL +2.5 | at GB | 55.5% | +3.1 | ▲ W | 41-24 |
| 17 | NYJ +12.5 | vs NE | 53.5% | +1.2 | ▼ L | 10-42 |
| 17 | IND +3.5 | vs JAX | 54.8% | +2.5 | ▼ L | 17-23 |
| 18 | CIN −9.5 | vs CLE | 54.6% | +2.2 | ▼ L | 18-20 |
| 18 | GB +12.5 | at MIN | 60.1% | +7.7 | ▼ L | 3-16 |
| 18 | PIT +4.5 | vs BAL | 55.2% | +2.8 | ▲ W | 26-24 |
| 19 | CHI +2.5 | vs GB | 54.1% | +1.8 | ▲ W | 31-27 |
| 19 | BUF +1.5 | at JAX | 53.5% | +1.1 | ▲ W | 27-24 |
| 19 | SF +6 | at PHI | 53.9% | +1.5 | ▲ W | 23-19 |
| 20 | SF +6.5 | at SEA | 54.5% | +2.1 | ▼ L | 6-41 |