← This week
Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Ravens at Bills
BUF −3O/U 54.560°F · wind 3 mph
Artemis's position
PassBUF −3
−115 · best −113 BetRivers
Cover probability52.1%
Edge
−0.3 pts
Size
No bet
The model leans this way but not by enough to beat the juice. Artemis passes.
What moves the number
points of cover margin for BUF- Quarterback+0.40
- Injuries & practice+0.38
- Luck & regression−0.22
- Team strength+0.22
- Rest, travel & schedule−0.11
- Market & line+0.06
- Special teams & penalties+0.06
Biggest push: Quarterback (+0.40). Biggest drag: Luck & regression (−0.22). About 260 inputs, grouped. Every one is known before kickoff.
- on 3 (key number)
Baltimore Ravens
AWAY- Record
- 4-3
- Expected wins
- 3.5
- ATS this season
- 2-4-1
- ATS on the road
- 2-1
Since 2015: 96-95-6 ATS (50.3%) · one-score games this year 3-2
Buffalo Bills
HOME- Record
- 5-1
- Expected wins
- 3.5
- ATS this season
- 4-2
- ATS at home
- 2-1
Running 1.5 wins above what its points say. Due to cool off.
Since 2015: 103-92-7 ATS (52.8%) · one-score games this year 4-1
The key number
Spreads near 3 (2.5-3.5) land exactly on 3 in 9.3% of games since 2015.
At −3, a 3-point Bills win is a push.
Trends that apply
- Underdogs on a key number (+3 / +7)since 2015, 290-281-6150.8%noise
Most trends are noise. See how all 27 grade out.