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Trends lab
27 popular betting angles, each graded for whether it's real or a coin flip with a story.
How the grades work. Strong survives a correction for testing 27 trends at once and points the same way in 2015-20 and 2021-now. Moderate is p under 1% and consistent. Weak is p under 5%, which chance alone produces once or twice in 27. Noise is indistinguishable from a coin flip.
| Trend (since 2015) | Bet | Record | Win % | 2015-20 / 21-now | 2026 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogsEvery home team getting points. | Side | 565-551-27 | 50.6% | 50.8% / 50.4% | 18-21-2 | noise |
| Road favoritesEvery road team giving points. | Side | 551-565-27 | 49.4% | 49.2% / 49.6% | 21-18-2 | noise |
| Home favorites of 7+Home teams laying a touchdown or more. | Side | 306-315-19 | 49.3% | 48.2% / 50.5% | 4-13-2 | noise |
| Road underdogs of 7+Road teams getting a touchdown or more. | Side | 315-306-19 | 50.7% | 51.8% / 49.5% | 13-4-2 | noise |
| Divisional underdogsUnderdogs against a division rival. | Side | 572-511-24 | 52.8% | 52.0% / 53.7% | 23-10 | noise |
| Teams off a byeFirst game after the bye week. | Side | 202-199-12 | 50.4% | 52.3% / 48.1% | 4-2 | noise |
| Road teams on a short weekThursday-style turnarounds, away from home. | Side | 91-93-7 | 49.5% | 50.0% / 48.9% | 2-5 | noise |
| Prime-time underdogsNight-game underdogs (TNF, SNF, MNF). | Side | 346-318-22 | 52.1% | 51.4% / 52.8% | 14-8-1 | noise |
| After losing by 20+The game after a blowout loss. | Side | 270-241-10 | 52.8% | 52.8% / 52.9% | 12-4-1 | noise |
| After winning by 20+The game after a blowout win. | Side | 271-276-9 | 49.5% | 51.9% / 47.3% | 6-10 | noise |
| After missing the spread by 14+The market overrated them last week. | Side | 365-351-17 | 51.0% | 48.9% / 53.1% | 15-9-2 | noise |
| West Coast teams at 1 p.m. ETBody-clock games: Pacific teams kicking off at 10 a.m. their time. | Side | 108-103-5 | 51.2% | 52.3% / 50.0% | 1-4 | noise |
| Revenge gamesLost the last meeting with this opponent. | Side | 298-286-14 | 51.0% | 52.1% / 49.8% | 0-0 | noise |
| 3+ extra days of restMore rest than the opponent by 3 days or more. | Side | 351-322-16 | 52.1% | 51.9% / 52.4% | 13-5-2 | noise |
| Dome teams in the coldIndoor teams playing outside in cold weather. | Side | 69-70-1 | 49.6% | 52.2% / 47.2% | 0-0 | noise |
| December-January home dogsLate-season home underdogs. | Side | 188-187-10 | 50.1% | 47.2% / 53.3% | 0-0 | noise |
| International-game underdogsUnderdogs in games played abroad. | Side | 15-22-1 | 40.5% | 35.3% / 45.0% | 2-2-1 | small sample |
| Favorites before a division gamePossible look-ahead spot. | Side | 474-561-26 | 45.8% | 45.5% / 46.1% | 16-13-4 | moderate |
| Underdogs getting the hook (+3.5 / +7.5)The half point past a key number. | Side | 258-240 | 51.8% | 52.2% / 51.4% | 14-10 | noise |
| Underdogs on a key number (+3 / +7)Getting exactly 3 or 7. | Side | 290-281-61 | 50.8% | 49.8% / 51.8% | 9-12-6 | noise |
| Wind 15+ mph: the underOutdoor games with 15+ mph wind at kickoff. | Total | 134-100-3 | 57.3% | 53.0% / 62.7% | 0-0 | weak |
| Freezing games: the underOutdoor games at 32°F or colder. | Total | 75-67-2 | 52.8% | 57.6% / 48.7% | 0-0 | noise |
| Totals of 50+: the underThe market's highest-scoring projections. | Total | 228-216-6 | 51.3% | 50.5% / 52.6% | 6-10 | noise |
| Totals under 40: the overThe market's lowest-scoring projections. | Total | 143-150-1 | 48.8% | 53.7% / 46.0% | 5-8 | noise |
| Division games: the underFamiliar opponents. | Total | 558-539-10 | 50.9% | 51.5% / 50.2% | 14-19 | noise |
| Prime-time games: the underNight games. | Total | 369-310-7 | 54.3% | 53.6% / 55.1% | 11-12 | weak |
| Dome games: the overIndoor games. | Total | 446-436-6 | 50.6% | 50.1% / 50.9% | 17-16 | noise |
The one that holds up: favorites with a division game the following week covered only 45.8% (their opponents: 54.2%). Wind trends use the wind measured at kickoff, which bettors only know as a forecast.