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Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Browns at Steelers
PIT −3.5O/U 39.563°F · wind 4 mph
Artemis's position
PassPIT −3.5
−109 · best −105 Bovada
Cover probability52.1%
Edge
−0.3 pts
Size
No bet
The model leans this way but not by enough to beat the juice. Artemis passes.
What moves the number
points of cover margin for PIT- Team strength+0.64
- Market & line+0.57
- Special teams & penalties+0.31
- Pass rush & protection+0.14
- Coaching & continuity+0.10
- Luck & regression−0.09
- Quarterback+0.09
- Injuries & practice−0.08
Biggest push: Team strength (+0.64). Biggest drag: Luck & regression (−0.09). About 260 inputs, grouped. Every one is known before kickoff.
- half-point off 3/7
Cleveland Browns
AWAY- Record
- 5-2
- Expected wins
- 3.1
- ATS this season
- 5-2
- ATS on the road
- 2-2
Running 1.9 wins above what its points say. Due to cool off.
Since 2015: 78-110-3 ATS (41.5%) · one-score games this year 5-1
Pittsburgh Steelers
HOME- Record
- 5-2
- Expected wins
- 3.9
- ATS this season
- 5-2
- ATS at home
- 3-0
Running 1.1 wins above what its points say. Due to cool off.
Since 2015: 107-86-6 ATS (55.4%) · one-score games this year 4-1
The key number
Spreads near 3 (2.5-3.5) land exactly on 3 in 9.3% of games since 2015.
A 3-point Steelers win falls short of −3.5, so this half point matters.
Trends that apply
- Underdogs getting the hook (+3.5 / +7.5)since 2015, 258-24051.8%noise
Most trends are noise. See how all 27 grade out.