← This week
Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Colts at Jaguars
JAX −10O/U 46.580°F · wind 13 mph
Artemis's position
PassJAX −10
−109 · best −108 DraftKings
Cover probability50.4%
Edge
−1.9 pts
Size
No bet
The model leans this way but not by enough to beat the juice. Artemis passes.
What moves the number
points of cover margin for JAX- Luck & regression+0.59
- Injuries & practice+0.35
- Market & line−0.34
- Coaching & continuity+0.31
- Quarterback+0.22
- Rest, travel & schedule+0.10
- Team strength−0.06
Biggest push: Luck & regression (+0.59). Biggest drag: Market & line (−0.34). About 260 inputs, grouped. Every one is known before kickoff.
- books split on the line: shop it
Indianapolis Colts
AWAY- Record
- 2-5
- Expected wins
- 2.9
- ATS this season
- 4-3
- ATS on the road
- 2-1
Since 2015: 95-92-4 ATS (50.8%) · one-score games this year 1-3
Jacksonville Jaguars
HOME- Record
- 4-2
- Expected wins
- 4.3
- ATS this season
- 3-3
- ATS at home
- 2-0
Since 2015: 93-96-4 ATS (49.2%) · one-score games this year 2-2
The key number
Spreads near 10 (9.5-10.5) land exactly on 10 in 4.6% of games since 2015.
At −10, a 10-point Jaguars win is a push.
Trends that apply
- Home favorites of 7+since 2015, 306-315-1949.3%noise
Most trends are noise. See how all 27 grade out.