← This week
Sun, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET
Chiefs at Broncos
KC −1.5O/U 40.562°F · wind 14 mph
Artemis's position
PassKC −1.5
−108 · best −105 DraftKings
Cover probability53.3%
Edge
+0.9 pts
Size
No bet
The model leans this way but not by enough to beat the juice. Artemis passes.
What moves the number
points of cover margin for KC- Team strength+0.93
- Market & line−0.38
- Coaching & continuity−0.29
- Luck & regression+0.20
- Injuries & practice+0.19
- Quarterback+0.12
- Pass rush & protection−0.10
- Rest, travel & schedule−0.09
- Last game−0.07
Biggest push: Team strength (+0.93). Biggest drag: Market & line (−0.38). About 260 inputs, grouped. Every one is known before kickoff.
Kansas City Chiefs
AWAY- Record
- 5-1
- Expected wins
- 4.1
- ATS this season
- 3-3
- ATS on the road
- 1-2
Since 2015: 106-101-5 ATS (51.2%) · one-score games this year 2-0
Denver Broncos
HOME- Record
- 5-2
- Expected wins
- 3.6
- ATS this season
- 5-2
- ATS at home
- 3-0
Running 1.4 wins above what its points say. Due to cool off.
Since 2015: 94-96-4 ATS (49.5%) · one-score games this year 4-0
The key number
Spreads near 3 (2.5-3.5) land exactly on 3 in 9.3% of games since 2015.
This spread sits 1.5 points from 3, so the key number matters less here.
Trends that apply
- Home underdogssince 2015, 565-551-2750.6%noise
Most trends are noise. See how all 27 grade out.