← This week
Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Vikings at Lions
DET −3.5O/U 46.5Indoors
Artemis's position
PassMIN +3.5
−121 · best −118 BetMGM
Cover probability52.0%
Edge
−0.4 pts
Size
No bet
The model leans this way but not by enough to beat the juice. Artemis passes.
What moves the number
points of cover margin for MIN- Rest, travel & schedule+0.42
- Quarterback−0.34
- Injuries & practice+0.33
- Team strength−0.31
- Market & line−0.21
- Special teams & penalties−0.19
- Coaching & continuity+0.18
- Luck & regression−0.16
Biggest push: Rest, travel & schedule (+0.42). Biggest drag: Quarterback (−0.34). About 260 inputs, grouped. Every one is known before kickoff.
- half-point off 3/7
Minnesota Vikings
AWAY- Record
- 6-0
- Expected wins
- 4.7
- ATS this season
- 4-2
- ATS on the road
- 3-0
Running 1.3 wins above what its points say. Due to cool off.
Since 2015: 105-83-6 ATS (55.9%) · one-score games this year 4-0
Detroit Lions
HOME- Record
- 4-2
- Expected wins
- 3.4
- ATS this season
- 1-4-1
- ATS at home
- 0-2-1
Since 2015: 102-86-4 ATS (54.3%) · one-score games this year 3-1
The key number
Spreads near 3 (2.5-3.5) land exactly on 3 in 9.3% of games since 2015.
A 3-point Lions win falls short of −3.5, so this half point matters.
Trends that apply
- Underdogs getting the hook (+3.5 / +7.5)since 2015, 258-24051.8%noise
Most trends are noise. See how all 27 grade out.