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Key numbers
Where NFL games land, what a half point is worth, and the teaser math.
Where NFL games land
Final margin, every game since 2015
4.41
4.62
14.93
4.64
4.45
7.16
8.77
4.38
1.79
4.710
2.111
1.912
2.013
5.114
1.615
2.316
3.517
2.218
1.119
2.020
2.221
What a half point is worth
| Key | Spreads | Games | Lands exactly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2.5-3.5 | 1105 | 9.3% |
| 7 | 6.5-7.5 | 492 | 7.5% |
| 10 | 9.5-10.5 | 196 | 4.6% |
| 14 | 13.5-14.5 | 84 | 3.6% |
| 6 | 5.5-6.5 | 431 | 5.1% |
| 4 | 3.5-4.5 | 574 | 2.8% |
How often the favorite wins by exactly the key number when the spread is near it.
Teaser math
Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5, teased 6 points through 3 and 7, won 77.8% of legs since 2015 (402-115-2).
Favorites of −7.5 to −8.5 teased down won 72.9% (194-72).
A 2-team teaser needs about 74% per leg at −120 and 75% at −130 to break even.