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Luck watch
Who is winning more than their points say, and who is due to bounce back.
Expected wins use points scored and allowed (Pythagorean, exponent 2.37). Teams far above their expected wins tend to come back down; teams far below tend to improve.
| Team | Record | Expected wins | Luck | One-score games | ATS | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 5-2 | 3.1 | +1.9 | 5-1 | 5-2 | Due to cool off |
| BUF | 5-1 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 4-1 | 4-2 | Due to cool off |
| DEN | 5-2 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 4-0 | 5-2 | Due to cool off |
| MIN | 6-0 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 4-0 | 4-2 | Due to cool off |
| SF | 6-1 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 3-0 | 4-3 | Due to cool off |
| PIT | 5-2 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 4-1 | 5-2 | Due to cool off |
| NYG | 4-2-1 | 3.6 | +0.9 | 3-1 | 5-2 | About right |
| KC | 5-1 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 2-0 | 3-3 | About right |
| GB | 5-3 | 4.2 | +0.8 | 3-1 | 4-3-1 | About right |
| DET | 4-2 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 3-1 | 1-4-1 | About right |
| CHI | 5-2 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 2-1 | 5-2 | About right |
| BAL | 4-3 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 3-2 | 2-4-1 | About right |
| NE | 4-3 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 2-2 | 3-3-1 | About right |
| CIN | 4-2 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 2-2 | 3-2-1 | About right |
| ARI | 2-5 | 2.0 | −0.0 | 1-1 | 3-4 | About right |
| CAR | 3-4 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 1-2 | 3-4 | About right |
| LV | 3-4 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 1-2 | 5-2 | About right |
| PHI | 2-5 | 2.2 | −0.2 | 2-2 | 1-6 | About right |
| JAX | 4-2 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 2-2 | 3-3 | About right |
| ATL | 3-4 | 3.5 | −0.5 | 0-3 | 3-4 | About right |
| MIA | 1-5 | 1.5 | −0.5 | 1-2 | 2-3-1 | About right |
| WAS | 1-4-1 | 2.1 | −0.6 | 1-2 | 3-3 | About right |
| SEA | 4-3 | 4.7 | −0.7 | 2-3 | 2-3-2 | About right |
| DAL | 3-4 | 3.7 | −0.7 | 1-3 | 3-3-1 | About right |
| NO | 2-5 | 2.8 | −0.8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | About right |
| LA | 3-4 | 3.8 | −0.8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | About right |
| IND | 2-5 | 2.9 | −0.9 | 1-3 | 4-3 | About right |
| TEN | 1-6 | 2.1 | −1.1 | 1-4 | 3-4 | Due to heat up |
| NYJ | 2-5 | 3.1 | −1.1 | 1-4 | 4-2-1 | Due to heat up |
| LAC | 0-6 | 1.4 | −1.4 | 0-3 | 0-5-1 | Due to heat up |
| HOU | 2-5 | 3.4 | −1.4 | 1-4 | 2-5 | Due to heat up |
| TB | 2-5 | 3.8 | −1.8 | 1-5 | 2-4-1 | Due to heat up |